The Guergis Factor

The 1 million dollar question, which we won't know the answer until all the votes are counted on May 2nd, 2011 is, did Helena Guergis cost the Conservatives Simcoe Grey?

If you listen to the recent interviews that Helena has given on local radio stations, and national television she claims that her own polling suggests that she will receive 30% of the vote. If you look at the numbers from the last election she received 55% of the vote while running as a Harper Conservative. Now I really don't know who her polling people called but if you look at all the new members that the Conservative riding association signed up during the nomination process, I think her numbers are way off by at least 15%. The reason I say this is unlike the 2008 election you didn't have a vote split on the right. Helena's running as an independent Conservative will not take away votes from the Liberals, Greens or NDP, but it will taske away votes from the Leitch camp.

The Greens percentage will drop from the 2008 election from the 10% mark down to about 6%. In 2008 the Greens had Peter Ellis running and he's known in the riding having ran before in the 2007 Provincial election and the 2006 Federal election. The Greens are having their nomination meeting on Monday with two unknowns seeking the nomination.



The NDP have Katy Austin who like Peter Ellis has run before on both the Federal and Provincial side and I predict she'll be able to hold her numbers to the same level as 2008, which was at 11%.



The Liberals have Alex Smardenka who's well known in the north end of the riding due to his 3 successful businesses, and the work he and his wife Sandy do for local groups by donating food to charity events, and the awards from the local chambers in Collingwood and Wasaga Beach. In the 2008 election the Liberals had several negative factors like the weakness of Dion as leader, and a candidate who was not that well known in the riding. News reports back in 2008 estimated that over 900,000 Liberals stayed home across Canada and did not vote. That equals about 10% of the total votes cast.

Iggy is not Dion, and if the Liberals are successful in getting out the vote they will come up the centre in Simcoe Grey and take this riding back from the Conservatives. In an election where every seat counts I'm surprised that Harper would allow what's considered a Conservative strong hold to be up for grabs.

So will Simcoe Grey be a close race? yes it will and it's going to be fun to watch and take part in.

Until next time!